Category Archives: Colorado Springs

Colorado Springs, Economy, Food for thought

Survivorship Bias in the Housing Market

In the real estate industry, agents and lenders speak often of average days on the market, closed to list price ratios and other metrics.

There’s something we need to really consider to gain perspective on the overall market conditions, though. That concept is survivorship bias.

This form of bias results when one mistakes one part of the data for all the data. In the case of housing, if I share the following stats with you:

The closed to original list price ratio for the last 30 days for Single Family Homes in El Paso County is 98.56%.

I am sharing that homes are selling for 2.52% below their list price on average in the last 30 days.

Contrast that with this same time last year, in which homes were selling for a median of 98.51%

One might infer from this that the market hasn’t shifted much.

However, the homes that did not sell in the last 30 days increased by a factor of over 70%.

Looking only at one set of the data – the homes that sold – would blind an observer to the fact that quite a few more homes have fallen out of the market in these last 30 days.

Here’s a bit more technical analysis via my GrokTheMarket blog.

Colorado Springs, Economy, State of The Market

July 2021 End of Month Stats

We are closing out July 2021 w/an average closed price of $476K, an average of 7 days on the market and an average closed to list price of 104.03%. Conventional loans have dominated the market this month. Meridian Ranch continues to dominate as the top subarea for volume of sales.

Colorado Springs, Economy

July 2020 / July 2021 Zip Code Sum of Sales

Doing a little explorative data analysis. Here are the July 2020 and July 2021 sum of sales by zip code. The dot sizing reflects the sum gradient (larger dots = more sales $).

Data extrapolated from the PPAR MLS 28 July 21.
Colorado Springs, Mortgages, State of The Market

CoS: State of the Market / Terms of Sale

Conventional is dominating the market in volume of sales month to date, accounting for 46% of sales. Here is the distribution of those sales (and cash, VA and FHA) across the market for the month in $50K incremements.

Colorado, Colorado Springs, Economy, Front Range, Home Values, Real Estate Investing

CoS: Top 10 zips

80831 is leading the list of top 10 zip codes by volume of sales month to date in the area, selling for 3.75% more than list on average. 80918 is leading the pack in terms of closed to list price ratio, selling for 5.53% over list on average.

These stats are part of a custom built platform I have built to deliver relevant hyper local stats to my clients. Please let me know if I can help you!

Rob Thompson, Realtor®, The Agency — 7194406626

Colorado, Colorado Springs, Economy, Mortgages, State of The Market

CoS: Top 10 Subareas July 2021

Here are the top 10 subareas month to date. Meridian Ranch continues its reign at the top!

Here’s how to read this chart:

Meridian Ranch has 29 sales month to date at an average closed price of $515K, a median of $512K, an average closed to list price of 103.72% (selling for 3.72% above list price), an average of 6.17 days on the market, a median of 4 days on the market, an average seller’s concessions of $244 and a median seller’s concessions of $0.

Seller’s concessions are often referred to as closing costs. I dislike this reference because it lends itself to confusion; I like the more accurate description of “seller’s contribution (concession) to the buyer’s closing costs

Colorado Springs, Economy, From the inbox, Mortgages, Real Estate Investing, State of The Market

Is Cash King?

Cash has the (significant) advantage of no appraisal but does it command the discount many feel it does? Let’s look at the data.

Below is a breakout of the purchase types of the sales YTD in the PPAR region. You can see there have been app 9,856 sales, 1646 of which have been cash. These on the average are paying 3.66% above list price. Contrast that with the 3.87% for conventional, 3.84% for FHA and 3.42% for VA and it’s immediately apparent that cash isn’t currently commanding the discount it has a reputation for.